A good portion of my day is spent researching rental trends and then being out and about giving people opinions about a fair rental price for their property. The consumers—and real estate sales agents– I speak with are split almost 50/50 in feeling like the current sales market applies to the rental market in terms of lower prices and the converse that the depressed sales market correlates well to higher rental prices.
So, who’s right? Well, it’s not so simple. (You were probably afraid that would be the answer…) And since it changes so frequently, I’ll be updating you on what we’re seeing “on the ground” at least monthly.
Rents remained strong over last summer, even as the sales inventory reached new highs. At Seattle Management Group, we saw multiple applicants and packed open houses resulting in quick turn-arounds, just as we have most summers. Of course, on the way to and from those packed open houses, we passed the multitude of For Sale signs beginning to accumulate cobwebs (on my own personal properties as well—so don’t for a minute think I was feeling smug). Usually, both the rental market and the sales market are usually hottest over the summer and then cool off in late fall. In general, it seems nobody wants to spend their Thanksgiving or New Years amongst packed boxes and change of address forms.
We began to get concerned that the For Sale signs that limped through the summer would soon become For Rent signs— resulting in saturation in the rental market during the slow months that would bring prices down. We were also concerned about the effects of the “Accidental Landlords” (see other blog post) would be both in terms of rental prices and how many of those people who were fed up with the sales market would become management clients and how many would brave the rental market on their own.
Now that spring is starting to spring and the slowest part of the market has passed what were we right about?
• A marked increase in inventory: We saw a heck of a lot more homes on the rental market this winter.
• Rents did go down a bit on mid-range houses (those that would typically sell between $350k-$600k and rent for $1400-2500).
• Time on market seemed longer, but only in comparison to summer… year-over-year it remained about the same. However, time on market was greatly affected by whether or not we came down on price- even small amounts like $100 off made a difference.
• A great influx of townhouses on the market: Builder inventory had to go somewhere and those builders who were able to convert their construction loans or amend the terms to allow for leases are happy to see even a modest cash flow.
• As expected, most of our new business came from successful sales agents. We forged many new and fruitful relationships with sales agents who wanted to offer their clients an option before the client jumped ship altogether. These agents were willing to lose the listing for now, but not willing to lose the client which is a strategy that will pan out well for them in the long run. (Even though we do some sales, in my firm, to ultimately seek the sales listing on a property that was referred to us by another agent will get you fired. We depend on our partnerships with sales agents!)
What surprised us?
• It was remarkable how long the For Rent signs sat that were posted by owners. (I now refer to this length of time for the usual red For Rent signs as “Days on Lawn”.) I feel a lot of compassion for these folks who had already been battered around the ears by the sales market and were now limping along on the rental market. However, with some homeowners tying their rental rates to their monthly mortgage payments… “I pay $2900 in mortgage, so I really need to get close to that in rent.”… it wasn’t entirely surprising.
• It was also surprising how many real estate sales agents were trying to be helpful to their by converting their sales listings to rental listings themselves rather than referring out to a PM firm. Most sales agents I know have no desire to be in property management, but found themselves in a position where it became a necessity. I can’t really comment on how successful this plan was for the agents or their clients.
And the biggest surprise?
• The luxury market! This topic merits its own blog post, but in short, there has been a huge jump in inventory of luxury rental homes available, resulting in lower rental prices. However, luxury home owners got to be luxury home owners by being pretty savvy, so they still see the benefit of collecting $42,000 in the coming year in rent, rather than losing several hundred thousand. Although the math is always so easy in theory and so difficult in practice.
What’s next?
Well, we shall see. But seriously, I think the news looks good for the rental market in Seattle:
• Early indications point to a definite increase in inventory, but along with that is an increase in demand with folks who are still gun-shy about the sales market or are having trouble scoring a loan.
• Inventory is down in the sales market and spring brings sellers some hope, which makes me think some of the houses that lagged on the rental market will return to the sales market.
• I expect rents for single family homes to regain what they lost in the winter, but not to gain much over last summer’s prices— hey, steady is good these days!
• Luxury rents will probably stay lower than those owners might hope, but should enjoy a slight bounce up or at least no further reductions.
I’ll update this blog with any trends I spot and will do another full report in March.
Please contact me with any questions or comments and with trends you’re spotting in the rental market!
Eleanor